According to the latest report from LEDinside, a division of the market research firm TrendForce, 2017-2021 LED Industry Demand and Supply Data Base- 2Q17, mainly analyzes top six LED demand and supply market trend in 2017, including IT display market, lighting market trend, automotive LED market trend, display market trend, infrared LED market trend and LED supply market analysis.
Topic One: IT Display Market
1.1 2017 TV Market Trend
In response to WCG market demand, different methods to improve color saturation, including KSF and QD Film, by turns hit the market, suggesting chances to reach the quality of BT 2020 80-85%. As for new TV model in 2017, Nichia launched 4014 B+G LED, cooperating with red phosphor, BT 2020 could reach 80%-85%. It is anticipated that other Korean manufacturers will follow suit.
Most direct-lit LED TV still use flip chip LEDs. CSP LEDs are mainly manufactured by Korean companies. The mainstream in 2016 was 1313/1616 LED and in 2017 it will be 1111/1313 LED. LEDinside forecasted that with increasing demand for HDR quality, CSP LED product penetration rate will speed up in the future.
Other advanced TV technologies, such as QLED, OLED, and Laser TV, can be seen in 2017 by branding. Such as QLED TV is supported by Samsung, TCL, and Hisense. On the other hand, LG and Chinese TV branding are supporting to OLED TV.
1.2 Project Market Trend
The projector market’s annual shipment volume was relatively stable at around 7 million to 8 million projectors. TV sizes have continued to increase as LCD TV costs declined. Currently, 80-inch TVs are being applied in commercial and education institutes, additionally the touch control panel solution has led to the rise of the emerging 80-inch touch panels in China. Commercial projector shipment volumes have gradually decreased, and is projected to drop to merely 6 million projectors in 2020.
Commercial projectors are mainly used in indoor conference rooms, schools, and other spaces in education institutes. In this application sector, the projector’s lumen flux is more commonly around 2,000 lm to 3,000 lm, while ranked second is the 3,000 lm to 4,000 lm range. Advancements in light source technology and the positive correlation between brightness and image quality resulted in steady annual uptick in brightness requirements. It is projected by 2020, the 3,000 lm and above market share will reach 43%.
The most common light sources used in projectors are metal halide bulbs, UHE and UHP that on average have a lifetime of only 6,000 hours. Currently, 2,000 lm and above commercial projectors main light source are still traditional light bulbs, but due to their shorter lifetime and high energy consumption, it will gradually be replaced with new light sources.
As for LED light sources, LEDs brightness and thermal dissipation technology still faces many technology challenges, which is why it is mainly targeting the 2,000 lm and below consumer market and home theaters. In the future technology advancements will be able to lower costs, and help it enter the 3,000 lm market. However, laser light sources are brighter, more colorful, and have longer lifetimes. Project designs are increasingly lighter and thinner. LEDinside projects the market penetration of laser light sources will reach about 30% by 2020.
Topic Two: Lighting Market Trend
2.1 Global v.s. Chinese COB Revenue Ranking
At present, international companies still lead the global COB market, while China manufacturers are also seizing market share by continuously launching new products. The top five companies in terms of global COB revenue are Citizen, CREE, Lumileds, Nichia, and Samsung. Due to the impact of revenue expansion speed, the ranking of Chinese domestic companies differs from that in 2015.
2.2 Stage Lighting LED Trend
The 2017 global LED stage lighting has reached a market value of around USD 740 million, with an increase of 14% YoY. The growth of its market value in the following years will slow down while currently it is continuously growing. By 2020, the estimate market size is likely to surpass USD 1 billion. The current penetration of LED stage lights stands at 39% and by 2020 it is projected to hit 50%.
At present, companies such as OSRAM, Everlight, and Lightning Optoelectronic are gradually launching their stage lighting LED products, including mono-color and multi-color lights, enabling high luminous intensity and efficiency.
LED stage lighting mainly emphasizes the quality of light, heat dissipation, and light distribution.
LED stage lights have several advantages over conventional ones- more efficient, higher color quality, longer lifespans and easier to use. Meanwhile, they also encounter challenges including: higher production cost, less diverse specifications and inconsistent quality.
Topic Three: Automotive LED Market Trend
Conventional Passenger Vehicle Market Size Forecast
The power consumption of LEDs used in China is relatively lower than the international average, and China has been actively promoting to replace low-power LEDs, hence the country consumes more LED volume than the average.
Currently, the average use of LED in headlamps per vehicle in China is 10 and the number will not drop until 2020. The market value of headlamps LED (both high and low beams included) in 2021 is projected to be USD 881 million. (2015-2021 CAGR: 48%)
The percentage of light guide plate (LGP) used in RCL rises, leading RCL products in the OE market to support more LEDs. In China, a RCL uses 35 LEDs.
New Energy Passenger Vehicle Market Size Forecast
The LED use in headlamps experiences most growth- as more similarities are shared between new energy vehicles of different brands in terms of specification, the sales is relatively high and that suggests high chance to introduce LEDs to new energy vehicles.
Lamps sported on electric cars have to meet the same standards the Chinese government sets for the specifications of lamps on both car types (conventional vehicles and new energy vehicles). The current penetration rate of LED in headlamps is relatively low and the LEDs priced high; the market value in 2017 stands at USD 2.3 million. Headlamp application currently sees most LED investment in new energy car.
LEDinside’s Perspective of China’s Automotive Lighting Market Potential
In terms of automobile development in China, regardless of passenger or commercial vehicles, new energy vehicle has become the main focus. Judging by the percentage distribution, the demand for LEDs is mostly from high-power light applications such as headlamps and RCLs.
Regarding automotive lighting in conventional passenger vehicle market, apart from headlamps, LEDs are mainly used to create brand images. For example, LED lights are installed in daytime running lamps, which often considered as brand signature, and automotive displays offering in-car entertainment. LED penetration rate in each automotive lighting application is expected to rapidly rise as China’s automotive lighting technology progresses in the supply chain.
Topic Four: Display Market Trend
The application of fine-pitch LED
display roughly covers four fields, including studio (15%), security control room (16%), commercial display (40%) and public and retail application (29%). In the case of more competitors joined, the profit margin of fine-pitch display market will be eroded to some extent, and the fine pitch LED display market scale is expected to increase from USD 1,141 million in 2017 to 1,770 million in 2021, achieve CAGR of 23% during 2015-2021.
At CES 2017, Japanese giant SONY was in the limelight due to the launch of its CLEDIS display, which has since redefined the Micro LED landscape. Kaz Hirai, SONY’s CEO, stated that this new canvas is the ideal replacement for existing fine-pitch LED video walls, which are used mainly in car dealer showrooms and museums that require large-scale displays with high resolution. Moreover, the advantage of Micro LED display includes wide view angle, high brightness and contrast, superior picture quality, and perfectly seamless Image.
However, considering about cost, after pitch refinement that narrows pitches between LEDs, the cost of LED packaging will consume a much larger proportion of the overall display module production cost. When it comes to Micro LED display, the cost structure of a Micro LED display of the same size and same pitch as those of a fine pitch display, according to the model, would be so much different from a fine pitch display’s cost structure. In particular, the cost of LED (light source) sees a drastic shrinkage. Other than that, LEDinside reckons LED transfer and display driver technology hold the largest proportions of the consolidated production cost.
The growth of Micro LED’s penetration rate is determined by how fast its selling price and cost drop. At the current stage, many developer companies have prioritized Micro LED displays on their lists. It is believed Micro LED Display will enter from the high-end niche market into the mainstream 3 years later when advanced technology matures up.
Topic Five: Infrared LED Market Trend- Summary
The market releases of VR devices are giving additional growth spurt to the IR LED market value. The IR LED market value for the VR application is estimated to arrive around USD 14 million in 2016, but the future growth in this market is expected. The VR devices capable of motion sensing that are currently on the market can be generally divided into inside-out tracking and outside-in tracking. The former is used by hTC Vive while Oculus Rift is an example of the latter. Both solutions use cameras equipped with IR LEDs and CCD / CMOS cameras for tracking and positioning. Nonetheless, VR devices are still a nascent stage in development. Designs of a device’s motion sensing feature vary. It will take time and effort for LED suppliers to develop products for this application and build up manufacturing capacities for them. These issues create uncertainty over the exact market demand of IR LEDs for the VR application.
In view of operation principle, Inside-out Tracking uses many infrared VCSELs or infrared LEDs, although the substantial increase in computing cost challenges consumers’ acceptance, its higher accuracy will not cause side effects like dizziness. In future, as the Inside-out tracking platform is opened up, the camp alliance, brand management, IP patent protection and content management will quickly promote the development of the supply market. Meanwhile, if there is a chance to lower product cost, Inside-out Tracking devices will win at the markets.
Topic Six: LED Supply Market Analysis
Thanks to the cost advantage, Chinese LED manufacturers achieved increasing market share in middle and low field. Therefore, international LED manufacturers were almost defeated in this furious competition, then they commissioned Chinese LED manufacturers to be their contract manufacturers. As a result, Chinese LED manufacturers’ production capacity kept releasing; and at the same time, they expanded production capacity of LED package components & LED wafers in order to receive international LED manufacturers’ OEM orders.
Majority LED manufacturers saw growth in capacity utilization in 1H17 due to the busy season of both traditional lighting and backlight application. However, MOCVD equipment will successively be included in the new equipment of some LED chip manufacturers, so it’s estimated that obvious output is to release into the market in 2H17, which will make an impact on the industry this year.
As Chinese first-tier LED chip manufacturers kept expanding production capacity, their LED wafer production capacity’s market share in global market has increased to 45% in 2016, among which several leading manufacturers’ market share kept increasing, like San’an and HC SemiTek.
Even if MOCVD equipment was mastered by EU and the USD enterprises in the past, Chinese homemade MOCVD equipment will be introduced to some LED chip manufacturers in 2017 as it started to pass their validation. Besides, it is very likely to further reduce cost thanks to the relatively low-price equipment.
Thanks to the increasing production capacity of new equipment, Chinese LED manufacturers who got subsidies and purchased new equipment will keep lowering their cost. In comparison, those greatly expanding production capacity during 2010-2011 will exit market in succession after the cost gap was drastically widened.
LEDinside Gold Member Report
|LED Supply Chain – Backlight / Lighting / Automotive / Display / UV LED / IR LED
Major LED Package Ranking in Applications
|LED Industry Demand and Supply Data Base
||Demand Market Forecast:
2016-2021 Demand Market Forecast
(Backlight / Lighting / Automotive / Display / UV LED / IR LED/ μLED)
||1Q (February) / 3Q (August)
|Supply Market Analysis:
1. Chip market revenue (external sales, total sales)
2. WW new MOCVD chamber installation volume / WW accumulated MOCVD chamber installation / WW new and accumulated MOCVD by K465i
3. Epi wafer market demand (total / by size)
|LED Chip Market Analysis:
Top 10 Chip vendors’ MOCVD installation, wafer capacity, and revenue
|LED Package Market Analysis:
LED package vendors’ revenue and LED revenue
Top 10 LED package revenues in backlight, lighting, COB, automotive, and display
|LED Industry Price Survey
||Price Survey – Sapphire / Chip / LED Package / Bulb
||1Q (February) / 2Q (May) / 3Q (August) / 4Q (November)
|LED Market Demand and Supply Analysis
||2Q (May) / 4Q (November)
|Infrared LED Market (2Q) / UV LED Market (4Q)
|Wafer and Chip Market, URT
|Supply and Demand Sufficiency Analysis
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